We believe that the world has become an irreversibly different and much more difficult place in which to work. Today a banality, it was not a widely-shared view in 1989-90, when we first predicted the onset of worldwide systemic change.
We believe, that the bursting of the .com investment bubble and the September 11. 2001 terrorist incident only accelerated this systemic, political and economic change process that had been on the horizon long before both incidents took place. However, and as always, poorly understood and ignored by most decision makers.
The same kind of ignorance by the same decision makers was once again witnessed with the onset of the global financial meltdown (we had been predicting this to happen ever since 2003) -- which actually started to unfold around July/August 2007.
This developing, global crisis, now visible to anyone, banking failures, political chaos, entire countries going bankrupt (Greece, Cyprus, Argentina, Brazil, Mali, South Sudan, Central African Republic and many more to follow etc.) is leading up to a banking system freeze to occur not before long. There is now a currency war in full swing that will kill the emerging market economies in Africa, Asia, Latin America, etc.
Starting with North America and Western Eurpoe, we shall see an event-driven scenario spreading wround the globe. Once this all unfolds we expect a total economic collapse by the end of 2014/2015, leading to mass panics, and then to civil unrest and likely developming into civil wars, as witnessed in Ukraine and Venezuela in early 2014.
The US Dollar will soon lose its global reserve currency status, as other currencies, like the Chines Rimimbi will replace the US$. We see so-called Rimimbi swap lines being put into place everywhere in the world quickly replacing the US$. The Anglo-American hegemony is quickly coming to an end.
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which "people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it." Therefore, the unskilled suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly-skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to the perverse situation in which less competent people rate their own ability higher than more competent people. It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence: because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. "Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."
"In the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt". -Bertrand Russell
Only those who do not know will be the ones who will be constantly taken by surprise.
The "new world" of today can be characterized in a hundred and one valid ways. For us, the "new" factors are:
- accelerating change;
- rising uncertainty;
- increased levels of risk;
- greater likelihood of policy failure or organizational breakdown.
This means that organizations of every stripe can no longer be assured of success, profitability, or even survival simply by doing what they have been doing in the same old way. Conversely, change and uncertainty can produce sudden, often strategic opportunities that those not so attuned simply miss, often to their organization’s irretrievable loss.
We at ALEXIS believe that in such circumstances any organization’s Strategic Policy, Strategic planning can be envisioned-- let alone carried out-- without factoring in the "political dimension", and involving the governments concerned and/or their relevant agencies from the beginning. Conversely, we do not believe governments can implement any transnational policy having concrete operational characteristics without appropriate private sector involvement. Unfortunately, private and public sectors do not know how to deal with each other effectively on most project management issues, especially transnational ones.
Finally, we are convinced that classical or established channels of communication among organizations are today either largely nonfunctional or so bureaucratically clogged that they no longer produce anything approaching the desired results. In fact, inter- and intra-organizational communication problems often become the principal obstacles to task accomplishment.
We say the above of governments, private sector enterprises, social service producing entities and multilateral organizations. To prove our point, we ask our readers simply to apply these general statements to whatever specific situation may come to mind, preferably to one for which he or she may be directly responsible. We wager that the "fit" in most cases will be close, perhaps exact.
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